Chris Cilliza has the bombshell:
Veteran Sen. Pete Domenici (R-N.M.) is expected to announce tomorrow that he will retire from the Senate in 2008, according to several informed sources, a decision that further complicates an already difficult playing field for Republicans next November.
If this proves true, Republicans have been handed a major disaster in their efforts to retain Senate seats in 2008. While Domenici's popularity has sagged dramatically from its formerly sky-high levels, few Democrats in the state had an appetite to challenge him. With the field clear, let's just say that developer Don Wiviott, the highest profile Democrat to enter the race so far (and that's not saying much) will find himself facing a top shelf candidate in the primary very soon.
Race Tracker Wiki: NM-Sen
HOLY SHIT.
I’m guessing this could be an opportunity for Chavez, because it seems likely that Denish wouldn’t move from her gubernatorial plans. Also, would this be the last chance for Udall to get into the upper chamber? If/When Bingaman retires in 2012, Udall would be in his mid-sixties…isn’t that older than average for a frosh senator, or no? Would Udall and Chavez really get into a primary against one another? This seems like an opportunity where the Party will try hard to clear the field. My guess is that Udall is the first choice, then Chavez, then Madrid. I don’t think Richardson gets in. Is there any chance that Chavez tries to primary Heinrich, when Wilson goes for the GOP nod? I’m not up on NM politics, so what would the pecking order be? Is Udall>Chavez>Madrid the likely order?
he said domenci is expected to announce this tomorrow. do you think udall will jump in (yeah, i know earlier i said we need to get away from political fsmilies, and i still feel this way, but at least udall has experience)? also, i wonder why he retiring? is there more in the AG scandal that might come out? tired of being in the senate? tired of being in the minority? we can all say he wasn’t spooked out of the seat, but it makes you wonder.
With most here. Udall and Chavez will both look into running and I hope Udall runs.
As far as why Domenici is retiring, maybe its because of the US attorney scandal, but it could also very well be that he doesn’t want to spend the forseeable future in the minority.
Heather Wilson is obviously the name you look at with the GOP, although I think Boehner and Cole may try to talk her out of that.
I think this gives the Dems 7 seats that I rate as either lean dem or toss-up: Colorado, Virginia, New Mexico, Minnesota, Oregon, Maine and New Hampshire.
Then I think you have a few other seats: Alaska, Okahoma, North Carolina and maybe Texas where you have incumbents who are either unpopular or gaffe-prone.
Richardson is likely to run for president, and if he does not succeed, he will go back to being governor of New Mexico. He has done a great job in that state, and we are probably best with him there. The Republicans don’t have a TOP tier challenger, they only have mediocre ones. Wilson is plagued by the same scandal as Domenici, and if she runs for Senate, she gives us a US House seat, and we can then go on to beat her out in the senate race. Republicans don’t have the money to cover this seat now. As of the first two quarters, Domenici had 1,000,000 dollars saved up. That goes to charity or spread out to Republican candidates. Either way, it is 1,000,000 less for New Mexico. This is great.
YES!!!
You have no idea how happy I am about this, a chance to not only pick up the Senate seat, but if Wilson runs for the Senate, we can pick up her house seat too, WOOHOO!!!
If the race ends up being Udall against Wilson, I think we’ll actually be in a good position to win the seat. I actually did this a while back, to get a good figure, these are the House figures for 2004 in all three NM congressional districts:
Udall 69% (175,269)
Tucker 31% (79,935)
Wilson 54% (147,372)
Romero 46% (123,339)
Pearce 60%(130,498)
King 40% (86,292)
Udall (with votes from 2nd District) 384,900 (52%)
Wilson (with votes from 2nd District) 357,805 (48%)
I’m using the 2004 numbers instead of the 2006 numbers to create a more conservative look at how they stand. Now, I’ll grant that a state-wide race has a different dynamic than these individual house races, but it provides a very good look at bases of support. As you all see, Udall starts off with a decent edge in his base.
This assumes that the race is between Udall and Wilson, but that like a pretty reasonable scenario.
I thought he was THE rumored candidate.
I picked that up from a DKos thread a while back… the one where Markos said we’d see somebody big declare for KY, but wouldn’t say who. In the comments folks said it was Brereton Jones.
He’s only three years older than Mitch McConnell is.
Do you have any idea who is being referred to then as the potential big catch? I certainly have no inside information, but that’s who I thought we were all referring to.
It’s hard to see, even with the retirements, that the Dems could get to a super-majority, sixty votes in the Senate, as much as some of the recent developments have been deliciously favorable.
Thinking a step ahead, there are six Republican Senators up in the next set of by-elections in swing states, and five Democrats.
Which of these races do you think are most likely to flip for Dems? Inouye has been long rumored to retire. Reid may be getting tired of the game. I don’t know much about Blanche. It would be good to groom a field, in any case, yes?
Could Brownback go the way of Santorum? I wonder if Vitter and Voinvich can get beat.
The table:
Democrats
Bayh, Evan (D-IN) Indiana
Boxer, Barbara (D-CA) California
Dodd, Christopher J. (D-CT) Connecticut
Dorgan, Byron L. (D-ND) North Dakota
Feingold, Russell D. (D-WI) Wisconsin *
Inouye, Daniel K. (D-HI) Hawaii
Leahy, Patrick J. (D-VT) Vermont
Lincoln, Blanche L. (D-AR) Arkansas *
Mikulski, Barbara A. (D-MD) Maryland
Murray, Patty (D-WA) Washington
Obama, Barack (D-IL) Illinois
Reid, Harry (D-NV) Nevada *
Salazar, Ken (D-CO) Colorado *
Schumer, Charles E. (D-NY) New York
Wyden, Ron (D-OR) Oregon *
Republicans
Bennett, Robert F. (R-UT) Utah
Bond, Christopher S. (R-MO) Missouri *
Brownback, Sam (R-KS) Kansas
Bunning, Jim (R-KY) Kentucky
Burr, Richard (R-NC) North Carolina
Coburn, Tom (R-OK) Oklahoma
Crapo, Mike (R-ID) Idaho
DeMint, Jim (R-SC) South Carolina
Grassley, Chuck (R-IA) Iowa *
Gregg, Judd (R-NH) New Hampshire *
Isakson, Johnny (R-GA) Georgia
Martinez, Mel (R-FL) Florida *
McCain, John (R-AZ) Arizona
Murkowski, Lisa (R-AK) Alaska
Shelby, Richard C. (R-AL) Alabama
Specter, Arlen (R-PA) Pennsylvania *
Thune, John (R-SD) South Dakota
Vitter, David (R-LA) Louisiana
Voinovich, George V. (R-OH) Ohio *
*indicates swing-state
US Ambassador to the United Nations is a Cabinet-level post now.
If I recall correctly, Markos said that we’d see a solid 2nd tier entry into KY-Sen. Could Jones, a popular former Governor, be considered “second tier”?
I gotta admit, I don’t know who he was talking about. His lips are sealed.
except for south dakota, every senate gain was made in the south, a region which not only had been swinging towards republicans, but also had a slew of retirements. except for florida and north carolina, we weren’t close in any of the southern seats. everyone talks about how 2004 was such a republican year, but if you look at it, all of the gains, in the house and in the senate were from the south. if anything 2004 was a neutral year nationally and a republican year in the south.
Oh no! Say in ain’t so, Pete! Not, goodbye your senile corrupt asshole.
Here’s the thread in question.
Markos said “Another note — the Democratic field in Kentucky isn’t set yet. Lots of rumors of bigger name Democrats getting in by the end of the year.”
So, unclear from that if it’s first or second tier.
However, I looked back at the folks who were saying it’s Brereton Jones, and they have no especial credibility. It looks more like they were just throwing names out there.
Actually, scratch that. It’s superribbie doing all the talking. I don’t know whether he/she knows any inside information, but he/she is not a dope and does have generic credibility.
Also, bigger names than Stumbo. Would Andrew Horne or Jonathan Miller qualify as a “bigger name”? Better candidate, possibly, but since we’re reduced to parsing language here, I’m not sure that that particular sentence would naturally point to them. Of course, Markos isn’t notoriously precise with his language anyway.
Also, there were lots of Brereton Jones for governor rumors, back when the field for the 07 challenge to Fletcher was being set. Those rumors surfaced in Political Wire and Bluegrass Report.
Anyway, I guess the bottom line is that neither you nor I know who is being rumored even. Sucks to be us.
Chuck Schumer had a goal of 6 Senate seats in 2006. And he made it!!
Lets tell him to set a goal of 8 Senate seats in 08. He can do it!!
Alyce Bowers